000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN DEC 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0325 UTC 
SHOWED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. PEAK WINDS TO 35-40 KT ARE 
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND MON 
NIGHT...BUT REMAIN GALE FORCE THROUGH WED MORNING. PEAK WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT WED AFTERNOON. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES SEAS TO 14-16 FT TODAY...BECOMING 13-14 FT BY MON... 
AND SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING SW FROM THE SOURCE REGION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N85W TO 06N91W TO 
07N96W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 08N104W TO 06N119W TO 
08N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY BECOME STRONG 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW... FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 8 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWS STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 30N. THE 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN STALL AND 
DISSIPATE MON. LARGE NW SWELL TO 13-15 FT FROM THE FRONT WILL 
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD IN NW PORTION OF FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 
TUE...WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W. 

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N122W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 17N. A SERIES OF 
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN 
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 122W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE ITCZ WILL SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN FRESH 
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH 
MON. TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL SWELL WILL ALLOW AN AREA 
OF 8-9 FT SEAS TO PERSIST IN WESTERN WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT... 
THEN MERGE WITH THE LARGER AREA OF SWELL...GENERATED BY THE COLD 
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE...TO COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA W 
OF 120W TUE AND WED.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE SUBTROPICS 
WILL PLUNGE FAR SOUTHWARD INTO TROPICAL WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH 
FRI...AND RETAIN CONSIDERABLE PUNCH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE 
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MAX SEAS 
PROJECTED TO BE 14-20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS 
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
   
$$
MUNDELL