000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN DEC 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WHICH ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE UP TO 40 KT BY 
SUNRISE SUN. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 07/0324 UTC INDICATED 
THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WITH RETRIEVALS REACHING 33 TO 
34 KT. LOOKING AHEAD...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE 00 UTC RUN 
OF THE TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL DIAGNOSES SEAS UP TO 17 FT BY 1200 
UTC SUN. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW AWAY 
FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N92W TO 06N95W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 08N101W TO 05N109W TO 08N127W TO 
08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 
78W AND 89W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
09N W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS 
THIS MORNING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS UP TO 30 KT 
WILL OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BUILDING SEAS TO UP 
TO 10 FT MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MON AFTERNOON WHILE 
RESIDUAL SEAS TO 9 FT WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SW.

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. SW WINDS AT 
20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO 
LIFT NORTH OF 30N BY LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD...THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM 
30N133W TO 26N140W BY LATE SUN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
NW WATERS WITH HEIGHTS OF 8-14 FT...SLOWLY PROPAGATING SE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF A LINE FROM 
30N121W TO 15N127W BY 0600 UTC TUE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N123W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE TO THE SE NEAR 15N105W AND SW TO NEAR 20N133W. MEANWHILE 
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS ARE MOVING 
WESTWARD IN THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE WEST-CENTRAL 
WATERS...SHIFTING JUST TO THE W OF 140W BY EARLY MON. COMBINED 
SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL WILL SURROUND THE 
AREA OF TRADES ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
   
$$
HUFFMAN