000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN DEC 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH ARE NOW FORECAST TO INCREASE UP TO   
40 KT AROUND SUNRISE DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. 
THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL DIAGNOSES SEAS UP TO 
17 FT BY 12 UTC SUN. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PROPAGATE TO 
THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO  
05N110W TO 09N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N127W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 
83W...FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 09N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS 
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE    
FLOW BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS UP TO 
30 KT WILL OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING BUILDING 
SEAS TO UP TO 10 FT MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MON 
AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL SEAS OF 8-10 FT CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
AWAY TO THE SW.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION RAP AND NAM 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH MON WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT. 
MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WILL PULSE 
TO FRESH LEVELS AT TIMES WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS REACHED 30N140W. SW WINDS AT 20-30 KT 
ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND 
RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS MAY 
OCCUR JUST NW OF THE AREA. THE LATEST PR-SREF 34 KT WIND 
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 60 PERCENT NW OF 30N140W. THE FRONT 
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS...THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM 30N133W   
TO 26N140W BY THIS TIME TOMORROW WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. A SET OF NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 
8-14 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE SE THROUGH 48 HOURS 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF A LINE FROM 20N129W TO 30N124W 
BY 00 UTC TUE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N122W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE TO THE SE NEAR 13N102W AND SW TO NEAR 23N133W. MEANWHILE 
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS ARE MOVING 
WESTWARD IN THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE W CENTRAL 
WATERS...SHIFTING JUST TO THE W OF 140W BY 24-48 HOURS. COMBINED 
SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL WILL SURROUND THE 
AREA OF TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND SW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY