000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT DEC 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 
GALE FORCE AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT WHICH AGREES WITH THE LATEST 
RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. GALE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 
HOURS. THE 18 UTC RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL DIAGNOSES  
SEAS UP TO 17 FT BY 12 UTC SUN. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 07N93W. THE   
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N118W THEN RESUMES FROM 
06N125W  TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 
08N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 97W AND 103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS UP TO 30 KT 
WILL OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON BUILDING SEAS TO UP TO 
10 FT MON MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION RAP AND NAM 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH MON WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT. 
MODERATE NW-N WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WILL PULSE 
TO FRESH LEVELS AT TIMES WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W IN A FEW HOURS. SW WINDS 
AT 20-30 KT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT AND 
RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS MAY 
OCCUR JUST NW OF THE AREA. THE LATEST PR-SREF 34 KT WIND 
PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 62 PERCENT NW OF 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS...THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM 30N132W  
TO 26N140W BY THIS TIME TOMORROW WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. A SET OF NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 
8-14 FT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SE THROUGH 48 HOURS...COVERING THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 20N131W BY 18 UTC MON.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N122W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE TO THE SE NEAR 17N107W AND SW TO NEAR 23N138W. MEANWHILE 
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS ARE MOVING 
WESTWARD IN THE ITCZ W OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE W CENTRAL 
WATERS...SHIFTING JUST TO THE W OF 140W BY 48 HOURS. COMBINED 
SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL WILL SURROUND THE 
AREA OF TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND SW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY