000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT DEC 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH PEAK DIURNAL WINDS DURING 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE. 
35 KT WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN PERSIST 
THROUGH MON MORNING WITH A BRIEF LULL TO 30 KT LIKELY SUN NIGHT. 
SAME PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEYOND 48 HOURS EARLY TUE MORNING INTO 
THU MORNING WITH A BRIEF LULL TUE NIGHT...AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. 
LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 14-16 FT BY SUN 
AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING TO THE S-SW 
AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 07N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 07N95W TO 05N113W TO 07N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 
106W...AS WELL AS BETWEEN 119W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY BECOME STRONG 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING SEVERAL 
DAYS INTO MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 8 FT JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE GULF WILL BECOME FRESH AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG 
THIS EVENING THROUGH MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
REGION TIGHTENS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION 
AREA THIS EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD 
EAST OF THE FRONT STARTING AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN SUN AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON MORNING. NW SWELL 
TO 13-15 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD 
IN NW PORTION OF FORECAST WATERS SUN AND MON...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 
EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N121W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 17N. A SERIES OF 
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN 
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE ITCZ WILL SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN FRESH 
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH 
MON. TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL SWELL WILL ALLOW AN AREA 
OF 8-10 FT SEAS TO PERSIST IN WESTERN WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT.
   
$$
MUNDELL