000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT DEC 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. 
WINDS WILL PULSE DIURNALLY THROUGH SUN WITH A PEAK DURING LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT 
THROUGH SUN AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS 
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 
UP TO 16 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
PROPAGATING TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N93W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N108W TO 06N120W TO 05N127W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 
86W...AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG LEVELS THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN EARLY SUN MORNING DURING 
PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 8 
FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF REGION.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BLOWING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NW 
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS.

NW SWELL WITH SEAS RANGING FOR 8 TO 10 FT ASSOCIATED WITH A 
PREVIOUSLY DISSIPATED COLD FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA. THE NEXT AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS SAT WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW 
WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD EAST OF THE BOUNDARY STARTING AT 1800 UTC 
SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 
26N140W BY 48 HOURS WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY 
WEAKENING. NW SWELL UP TO 14 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NEXT 
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ANTICIPATED NEAR 30N140W.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N120W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS E-SE TO NEAR 16N108W. A SERIES 
OF PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ARE 
MOVING WESTWARD W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 
AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES JUST N OF THE ITCZ 
THROUGH SUN AND THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD SE AND NW 
SWELL WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS 
THE W CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
   
$$
HUFFMAN