000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT DEC 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT. WINDS WILL 
PULSE DIURNALLY THROUGH SUN WITH A PEAK DURING LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS A 
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH A STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE AREA SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS UP TO 
16 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING 
TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 07N95W. THE   
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N95W TO 07N117W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG LEVELS EARLY SAT MORNING... THEN AGAIN EARLY SUN MORNING 
DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 
8 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BLOWING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NW 
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW WATERS REACHING FROM 30N131W 
TO 24N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED ONLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT HOWEVER MIXED SE AND 
NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE W OF THE FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED 
SET OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER BARELY MAKES ANY 
FORWARD PROGRESS. 

A NEW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF  
THE DISCUSSION WATERS SAT WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS EXPECTED 
AHEAD OF IT STARTING AT 18 UTC SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN 
AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 26N140W BY 48 HOURS WHILE STALLING 
OUT. NW SWELL UP TO 14 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT 
WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ANTICIPATED NEAR 30N140W.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N121W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS E-SE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 
18N108W. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ ARE MOVING WESTWARD W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES 
JUST N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH SUN AND THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH 
LONG PERIOD SE AND NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 8-10 FT 
COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND FAR SW WATERS THROUGH   
48 HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY