000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052103
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI DEC 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SEAS UP TO 8 
FT. WINDS WILL PULSE DIURNALLY THROUGH SUN WITH A PEAK DURING 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN 
AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH A STRONG 
HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS UP TO 
15 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING 
TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N90W. THE   
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 05N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 127W AND 138W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 80W UNDER 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF. NE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS EARLY SAT MORNING... 
THEN AGAIN EARLY SUN MORNING DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 8 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BLOWING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NW 
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW WATERS REACHING FROM 30N132W 
TO 24N140W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED ONLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER A SHIP 
TRAVERSING THE AREA REPORTED 8-10 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW WHILE THE ASSOCIATED 
SET OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER BARELY MAKES ANY 
FORWARD PROGRESS. A NEW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT STARTING SAT NIGHT. THE 
FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W BY 
48 HOURS. NW SWELL UP TO 14 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NEXT 
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ANTICIPATED NEAR 30N140W.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N120W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS E-SE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 
18N112W. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ ARE MOVING WESTWARD W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES 
JUST N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH SUN AND THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH 
LONG PERIOD SE AND NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 8-10 FT 
COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY