000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI DEC 5 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL PULSE 
DIURNALLY THROUGH SUN...WITH A PEAK DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS FROM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUN MORNING AS A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT 
DEVELOPS AS A STRONG HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL RANGE 8-12 FT IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N89W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
07N89W TO 05N93W TO 8N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...  

NW SWELL TO 9 FT IS WEST OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 
LATE TONIGHT...THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW 
PART OF THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH 20-25 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...AND NW SWELL BUILDING TO 11-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT SUN.

A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N120W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
OVER NORTHERN WATERS E OF THE FRONT TO AROUND 18N. A SERIES OF 
PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...ARE 
MOVING WESTWARD W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ 
WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 17N W OF 
120W THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS 7-9 FT THROUGH SUN.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH 
SEAS REMAINING 6-7 FT. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY APPROACH 25 KT IN 
THE DIURNAL PEAK PERIOD BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC THROUGH SUN.
   
$$
MUNDELL