000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI DEC 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-
NE WINDS IN THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH ARE GENERATING 
8 TO 10 FT SEAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. EARLY SUNDAY HOWEVER... 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZING DUE TO STRONG SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION. SEAS WILL 
RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N85W TO 05N94W TO 
05N102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N102W TO 06N110W TO 04N116W TO 
07N123W TO 06N129W TO 07N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND FROM 06N 
TO 10N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED 
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF REGION FRI 
MORNING. THEREAFTER...THROUGH EARLY SUN NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. WINDS ARE AT FRESH LEVELS NEAR 
THE FRONT WITH 8 TO 9 FT NW SWELL WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 27N130W BY EARLY 
SAT...DISSIPATING BY EARLY SUN. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE...THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
SLOWLY TO THE SE. BY EARLY SUN...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY.

A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WILL 
PROPAGATE WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN THIS AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES GENERALLY 
S OF 16N W OF 120W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN.
   
$$
HUFFMAN