000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI DEC 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 05N97W TO 
06N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N121W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 09N125W TO 09N134W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N137W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 08N 
W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 
THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE N-NE WINDS WHICH ARE GENERATING 8-10 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE PEAKING AT NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL  
DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED 
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF LATER TONIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR 
LESS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF N OF 29N. WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N  
AT 5-10 KT FRI...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT SAT. S OF 29N...MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY NW-N WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 3-5 FT BY SAT.

MIXED SE AND NW SWELL COVERS THE W CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS    
OF 8-10 FT W OF A LINE FROM 21N140W TO 11N117W TO 00N130W. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS COVERING THE AREA FROM 
07N TO 16N W OF 130W BY THEN.

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. WINDS ARE AT FRESH 
LEVELS NEAR THE FRONT WITH A SET OF 8-9 FT NW SWELL BEHIND IT. 
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 25N136W BY 
24 HOURS...DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE...THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
SLOWLY TO THE SE. ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL 
REACH 30N140W BY 48 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS  
EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT.

A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD ALONG THE 
ITCZ THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN THIS AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO FRESH LEVELS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS 
TO 8 FT BY 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W LATER TONIGHT... 
SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 
12N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W BY 48 HOURS WHILE BUILDING TO 9 FT.
   
$$
LEWITSKY