000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU DEC 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 05N104W. THE  
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N104W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W 
AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL  
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG N-NE 
WINDS PERSIST WITH RESULTANT SEAS AT 8-11 FT. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE PEAKING AT NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL  
DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SOME RESIDUAL SEAS TO 8 FT GENERATED BY A 
MORNING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS  
THAN 8 FT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT     
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR 
LESS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF N OF 29N. WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N  
AT 5-10 KT FRI...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT SAT. S OF 29N...MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY NW-N WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 3-5 FT BY SAT.

MIXED SE AND NW SWELL COVERS THE W CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS    
OF 8-11 FT W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 10N117W TO 00N135W. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS COVERING THE AREA   
FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 130W BY THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A NEW SET OF 8-9 FT NW SWELL 
ARRIVING BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N138W TO 
28N140W BY 00 UTC...THEN FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W IN 24 HOURS...
DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE... 
THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE 
SE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER BY 48 HOURS AND 
SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE FAR 
NW CORNER BY THEN.

A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL FORM AND PROPAGATE 
WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
JUST N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE TROUGHING AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO FRESH 
LEVELS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT BY 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 
110W AND 114W LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING WESTWARD AND COVERING THE 
AREA FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 126W BY 48 HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY