000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU DEC 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    
                              
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE 35-40 KT GALE CONDITIONS 
RESULT IN SEAS TO 17 FT ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE GALE 
CONDITIONS TO END BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NOCTURNAL 
NORTHERLY SURGE ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING SHOULD MAX AT 30 
KT...AND THEN ONLY 25 KT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN 
MORNING...AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 08.577W TO 09N83W THEN TURNS SW TO 05N93W  
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH 
CONTINUES WNW TO 07N110W TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 10N120W...THEN 
SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS 
OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07-09N E OF 85W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N117W TO 05N133W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NOCTURNAL NE DRAINAGE FLOW OF 20-25 KT  
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT DRAINAGE CONDITIONS 
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND REPEATING ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE HINT OF 20-
25 KT DRAINAGE ON SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE  
GULF WATERS S OF 28N THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 
KT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT VARIABLE 5-10 KT 
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING 
NW 10 KT ON FRI...NW 10-15 KT ON SAT AND NW 10-20 KT ON SUN.
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE EPAC WITHIN A FEW   
HUNDREDS MILES W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE  
TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF ABOUT 117W WHERE A FRONT IS 
CURRENTLY STALLING. WINDS REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 115W...BUT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING 
WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED 
SEAS OF 7-9 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 20N128W TO 08N116W TO 
05N140W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE 
SUB-TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUE AT 7-9 FT ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL WATERS...S OF 23N...W OF 112W WITH 15-20 KT NE TRADES 
THROUGH MON. 

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE 
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FROM 32N126W TO 24N32W ON FRI NIGHT. 
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF THE FRONT TODAY AND FRI. SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION ON SAT IN ADVANCE OF 
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT. NW SWELL BEHIND THIS SECOND 
FRONT WILL BUILD COMBINED SEAS TO 10-15 FT OVER THE NW WATERS ON 
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.  
   
$$
NELSON