000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED DEC 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE ONGOING GALE EVENT WITH N- NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT HAS RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING UP 19 FT ABOUT 90-120 NM OFFSHORE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1144 UTC THIS MORNING NICELY DEPICTED THE N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 13N AND BETWEEN 95W-96W. THE PASS ALSO SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 11N AND BETWEEN 94W-97W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO SLOWLY SLACKEN THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE STRENGTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY SURGE ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING SHOULD MAX AT 30 KT...AND THEN ONLY 25 KT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AND SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT HAS INDUCED UPWELLING OF RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W AS PORTRAYED IN LATEST SEA SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTION PRODUCTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W TO 06N90W TO 07N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH 07N110W TO 09N120W TO 08N131W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W-121W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF ITCZ E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 87W-94W. ...DISCUSSION... RATHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST ROUGHLY ALONG 25N NEAR 120W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO HELPING TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF ABOUT 118W. CURRENTLY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN ALONG A POSITION FROM ABOUT 32N120W TO 22N125W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 115W...BUT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT W OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 13N140W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6- 7 FT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NW CORNER. A TROUGH MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT EXTENDS FROM 18N126W TO 11N131W. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING THE CONVECTION JUST N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 128W-132W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO 15-20 KT EARLY TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON THU BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. CURRENT SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN BUILD TO 8 FT BY EARLY ON THU...AND SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY THU AFTERNOON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF S OF 28N THROUGH THE FRI...EXCEPT BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 28N THROUGH THU NIGHT...BECOMING NW 10 KT ON FRI. $$ AGUIRRE