000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED DEC 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE 35-45 KT STRONG GALE 
CONDITIONS RESULT IN SEAS TO 18 FT ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE. LATEST 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND NOW 
EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THU MORNING WITH 
CONDITIONS BELOW GALE ON THU AFTERNOON. THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY 
SURGE ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING SHOULD MAX AT 30 KT...AND 
THEN ONLY 25 KT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AND 
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 07N78W TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE 
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH 08N120W 
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 07N82W AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N112W TO 09N122W TO 08N128W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NOCTURNAL NE DRAINAGE FLOW OF 20-25 KT AT 
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
ONLY 15-20 KT DRAINAGE CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT AND 
REPEATING THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHEST HINT OF 20-25 KT 
AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS S OF 28N THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT VARIABLE 5-10 KT 
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THU NIGHT... 
BECOMING NW 10 KT ON FRI...AND NW 10-15 KT ON SAT.
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE EPAC WITHIN A FEW   
HUNDREDS MILES W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE 
TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF ABOUT 118W. CURRENTLY A COLD 
FRONT IS SLOWING FROM ABOUT 32N120W TO 22N127W. WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 
115W...BUT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH E SWELL RESULTING 
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT W OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 13N140W. 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL 
WATERS ON THU NIGHT...BUT CONTINUES AT 7-9 FT ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL WATERS...S OF 23N...W OF 120W WITH 15-20 KT NE TRADES 
THROUGH SUN. 
   
$$
NELSON