000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030250
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED DEC 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...    
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE TEXAS SOUTHWARD ALONG 
EASTERN MEXICO TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...SUPPORTING 
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE 
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING TO 45 KT TONIGHT THROUGH 
EARLY WED DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN WILL DIMINISH BACK TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 17 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS WHICH IS A 
BLEND OF THE LATEST WW3 AND TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. ASSOCIATED 
SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PROPAGATE SW-W AWAY FROM THE 
SOURCE REGION TO 106W.
        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 07N86W TO 06N94W.   
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N95W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N110W TO 
07N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N  
TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS AND 1-3 FT 
SEAS ARE ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED 
NIGHT...EXCEPT WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE WED AFTERNOON N OF 29N. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH AND SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 2-4 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU DUE TO NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT DURING 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN EVENTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT 
WED AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE 996 MB LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N131W EXTENDS A 
COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 30N121W TO 24N126W. 
FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF A LINE 
FROM 30N125W TO 27N128W  TO 27N137W TO 30N140W. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND 
STARTS TO DISSIPATE. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD 
SE SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N128W TO 15N140W. THIS MIXED SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY WITH 8-11 FT SEAS COVERING THE AREA W OF A LINE 
FROM 19N140W TO 17N130W TO 11N119W TO 00N137W BY 48 HOURS.

WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WHILE A BROAD 1007 MB 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING NEAR 08N124W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH 
TRADES AND SUBSEQUENT 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 124W. THE BROAD LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 10-
15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF 
SEAS MERGES WITH THE MIXED NW AND SE SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE.
   
$$
LEWITSKY/RAMOS