000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE DEC 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...    
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CENTRAL TEXAS 
SOUTHWARD ALONG EASTERN MEXICO TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA...SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 45 KT LATE 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN WILL 
DIMINISH BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18 FT DURING THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST WW3 AND TAFB-NWPS 
MODEL GUIDANCE. ASSOCIATED SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
PROPAGATE SW-W AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION TO 10N105W.
        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N92W. ITCZ FROM 
06N92W TO 07N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 
82W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS AND 2-4 FT 
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 
28N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 
FT OR LESS. S OF 28N...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW-N WINDS AND 
2-4 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU DUE TO NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT DURING 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN EVENTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT 
WED AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE 994 MB LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W EXTENDS A 
COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N123W TO 25N126W. 
FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N W 
OF A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 27N130W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
20 KT OR LESS BY 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND STARTS TO 
DISSIPATE. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SE SWELL 
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 
30N121W TO 25N124W TO 21N130W TO 17N140W. THIS MIXED SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY WITH 8-11 FT SEAS COVERING THE AREA W OF A LINE 
FROM 26N140W TO 10N117W TO 00N140W BY 48 HOURS.

WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WHILE BROAD LOW 
PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 120W IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH TRADES AND SUBSEQUENT 8-10 FT SEAS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
BY A LINE FROM 12N123W TO 12N116W TO 07N107W TO 07N123W TO 
12N123W. THE BROAD LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 10-
15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF 
SEAS MERGES WITH THE MIXED NW AND SE SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE.
   
$$
LEWITSKY/RAMOS