000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE DEC 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE CURRENT MINIMAL GALE 
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE TONIGHT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. 
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE FRI MORNING...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW 
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NORTHERLY 20-25 KT PULSES THROUGH 
SUN. THE EXTENT OF NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS 
OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD REACH ALONG 07N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W 
ON WED NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.  
        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 08N77W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO TO 06N90W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH 
TURNS SLIGHTLY WNW TO BEYOND 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND 
STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE 
WATERS TO THE N OF 07N AND E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 08N115W TO 10N121W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 13.5N128W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NOCTURNAL NE DRAINAGE FLOW OF 20-25 KT AT 
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT WED 
NIGHT...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT DRAINAGE 
CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF 
WATERS S OF 28N TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING 
AT 15-20 NW FLOW ON SAT NIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS 
OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN 
NW 10-15 KT FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE EPAC WITHIN A FEW  
HUNDREDS MILES W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE 
TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF ABOUT 118W. A BROAD FRONTAL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 18N132W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 
AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW PORTION AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 
15N111W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 17-26N BETWEEN 118-126W. 
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N127W TO 20N140W WILL WEAKEN TO A 
FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N121W TO 23N123W TONIGHT. A 20-25 KT SW-W-
NW WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...WITH SEAS OF 8-15 FT 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF 130W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BY EARLY WED. THE 
ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS AND SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT IN THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
W OF 124W BY LATE THU. ONLY EXPECT 3-5 FT COMBINED SEAS TO REACH 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BRIEFLY LATE 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. 
   
$$
NELSON