000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE DEC 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE CURRENT N-NE 20-30 KT 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO A 
STRONG GALE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT ABOUT 
100 NM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. MINIMAL GALE TO 35 KT 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE THU EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-
25 KT PULSES THROUGH SAT. THE EXTENT OF NE SWELL RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 
93W AND 104W THROUGH WED THEN SUBSIDE.
        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N84W TO 06N89W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS NEAR 06N89W AND CONTINUES TO 06N110W TO 13N127W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION..

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ONGOING NE DRAINAGE FLOW OF 20-25 KT DURING 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT 
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN 
TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL 
REPEAT TUE AND WED NIGHTS...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAYING 
BELOW 20 KT AFTERWARDS. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH ALONG SONORA COAST IN 
NW MEXICO WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES THEREAFTER 
SUPPORTING NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF COLD 
FRONTS E OF 120W. A COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY 
EASTWARD TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT 
AND 12-20 FT SEAS...HIGHEST NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN 
TO STALL AND DISSIPATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BY EARLY WED. 
ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E-SE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS AND SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT BY LATE WED REACHING TO 
NEAR 122W WED.
   
$$
MUNDELL/RAMOS