000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON DEC 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE CURRENT N-NE 20-30 KT 
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE LATE TONIGHT... 
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. 
MINIMAL GALE TO 35 KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND 
EARLY THU MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
NORTHERLY 20-25 KT PULSES THROUGH SAT. THE EXTENT OF NORTHERLY 
SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD 
REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 104W WED THEN SUBSIDE.
        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 05N94W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N94W TO 06N108W TO 09N120W TO 14N128W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 14N134W TO 12N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ONGOING NE DRAINAGE FLOW OF 20-25 KT DURING 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT 
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN 
TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL 
REPEAT TUE AND WED NIGHTS...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAYING 
BELOW 20 KT AFTERWARDS. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH ALONG THE SONORA 
COAST IN NW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER 
SUPPORTING NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF COLD 
FRONTS E OF 120W. A COLD FRONT OVER FAR NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE 
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND 
SHIFT AND SEAS 8-20 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N140W. THE 
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND DISSIPATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
BY EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E-
SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AND SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT BY LATE 
WED REACHING TO NEAR 122W WED.
   
$$
MUNDELL