000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON DEC 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE CURRENT N-NE 20-30 KT 
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE LATE TONIGHT... 
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 16 
FT ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. MINIMAL GALE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...THEN 
THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NORTHERLY 20-25 
KT PULSES THROUGH SAT. THE EXTENT OF NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING 
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD REACH ALONG 09N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 104W ON WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.
        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N83W TO 05N96W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N96W TO 07N115W TO 11N119W TO 12N125W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 
83W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ONGOING NE DRAINAGE FLOW OF 20-25 KT 
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT 
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING ONCE 
AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. THIS PATTERN 
WILL REPEAT TUE AND WED NIGHTS...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-
20 KT DRAINAGE ON THU NIGHT. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT FLOW CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 
EMBEDDED 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF 26.5N110.5W. 
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER SUPPORTING NW 10-15 KT 
CONDITIONS ON TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N...WITH LIGHTER FLOW AT TIMES OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 
15-20 KT S OF 28N ON WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE THU.
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC 
WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDS MILES W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
AND CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS OVER 
THE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF 120W. A FAIRLY 
STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY 
EASTWARD TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AND 
SEAS 8-20 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL 
BEGIN TO STALL AND DISSIPATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS EARLY 
WED. THE ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E-SE 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AND SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT IN THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS BY LATE WED AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH 
THE BOUNDARY OF 8 FT SEAS REACHING ONLY AS FAR E AS 122W ON WED. 
ONLY EXPECT 3-5 FT COMBINED SEAS TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE.
   
$$
HUFFMAN