000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010956 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON DEC 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE CURRENT N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY THIS EVENING... FURTHER INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE LATE TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NORTHERLY 20-25 KT PULSES THROUGH SAT. THE EXTENT OF NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD REACH ALONG 08N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W ON WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08.5N83W...THEN TURNS SW TO 05N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO 08N112W...THEN TURNS NW TO AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH AT 14N127W...THE SW TO 09N132W AND THEN W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN BOTH AND INTENSITY FROM 05-08N TO THE E OF 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N116W TO 15N122W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 14N131W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NOCTURNAL NE DRAINAGE FLOW OF 20-25 KT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT TUE AND WED NIGHTS...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT DRAINAGE ON THU NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT FLOW AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED NEAR 26.5N110.5W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ON TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N...WITH LIGHTER FLOW AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 28N ON WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE THU. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE EPAC WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDS MILES W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE W OF 118W. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE E TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A 20- 30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AND SEAS 8-19 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS EARLY WED. THE ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AND SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT IN THE DISCUSSION WATERS BY LATE WED AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY OF 8 FT SEAS REACHING ONLY AS FAR E AS 122W ON WED. ONLY EXPECT 3-5 FT COMBINED SEAS TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. $$ NELSON