000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN NOV 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW SHOULD  
PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT 
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. THE NOCTURNAL 
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT 
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT 
EARLY MON NIGHT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
LATE MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 14 FT ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. 
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU 
MORNING...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE EXTENT OF NORTHERLY 
SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER HAS CROSSED 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-111W WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT W AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.     
        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 09N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W 
TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 07N106W TO 13N122W TO 12N131W TO 
BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N107W TO 
11N122W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08.5N127W 
TO 10N134W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30  
KT NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
MID MORNING TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT ENE 
NOCTURNAL PULSES THROUGH THU. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER 
THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME NW 
AT 10-15 KT ON MON AND MON NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER 
THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT 
TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE MON 
INTO MON NIGHT.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 22N118W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE  
EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL RESULTS IN COMBINED 
SEAS OF 7-9 FT CONTINUING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO 
THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW 
WIND SHIFT AND SEAS 8-13 FT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL TUE 
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 19 KT REACHING NEAR 30N140W LATE MON. THESE 
LARGE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT IN THE DISCUSSION WATERS BY 
LATE WED AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY OF 8 FT 
SEAS REACHING ONLY AS FAR E AS 120W ON WED. ONLY EXPECT 4-6 FT 
COMBINED SEAS TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. 
   
$$
NELSON