000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN NOV 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
         
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N80W TO 10N85W TO 
06N94W TO 07N99W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N99W TO 11N106W TO 12N122W 
TO 08N129W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN 
MEXICO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT HIGH WIND EVENT IS GRADUALLY 
SLACKENING. THE EDGE OF AN ASCAT-B PASS AT 1612 UTC SHOWED MAX 
WINDS OF 30 KT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS IN 18-
24 HOURS WITH THE LINGERING SWELL SPREADING OUT SOUTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL SET UP AGAIN 
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER 
SURGE OF STRONG N WINDS MON...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE BY 
MON EVENING.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAVE BEEN STALLING OVER THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL TROUGH...THE 
REMNANT OF A COLD FRONT...IS ANALYZED FROM 30N128W TO 22N137W.  
8-10 FT NW SWELL ARE WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W. A 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NW WATERS SUN ACCOMPANIED BY 
A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AND BUILD SEAS TO 10-12 FT. A NEW 
BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 15-20 FT IN NW 
PART LATE SUN AND EARLY MON. 
 
A WEAK TROUGH WAS EVIDENT FROM ASCAT DATA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON 
ALONG 108W NEAR 10N. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W WITH WINDS TO 20-25 
KT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS AND SEAS TO 10-12 FT FROM COMBINED WIND 
WAVES AND RESIDUAL MIXED SWELL.
                                           
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT RELATED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH 
PRES WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT...THEN NOCTURNAL 
FORCING AGAIN SUN EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KT BY MON. 
   
$$
MUNDELL