000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
         
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 07N90W TO 11N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN 
MEXICO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT HIGH WIND EVENT IS GRADUALLY 
SLACKENING. THE EDGE OF AN ASCAT-B PASS AT 1612 UTC SHOWED MAX 
WINDS OF 30 KT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH LINGERING SWELL SPREADING OUT SOUTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING ONCE AGAIN SETS UP 
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER 
SURGE OF STRONG N WINDS MON...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE BY 
MON EVENING.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAVE BEEN STALLING OVER THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MOST CURRENT FRONT IS 
ANALYZED FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W. 8-10 FT NW SWELL ARE WEST OF A 
LINE FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
INTO NW WATERS SUN ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT 
AND BUILD SEAS TO 10-12 FT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 18-20 FT IN NW PART LATE SUN AND EARLY MON. 
 
A WEAK TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM ASCAT DATA ALONG 108W NEAR 10N. 
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W WITH 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE 
TROUGH AXIS AND SEAS TO 11-12 FT FROM COMBINED WIND WAVES AND 
RESIDUAL MIXED SWELL.
                                           
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT RELATED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH 
PRES WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT...THEN NOCTURNAL 
FLARE UP AGAIN SUN EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KT BY MON. 
   
$$
MUNDELL