000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291557 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT EVENT OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF IS GRADUALLY SLACKENING. AS A RESULT...THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GALE FORCE OF 30-40 KT WITH INDUCES SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 11-18 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT. THESE WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN EARLY SUN EVENING NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT DURING THE PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON MON. AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING ONCE AGAIN SETS UP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE PRES GRADIENT JUST INLAND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL TIGHTEN UP LEADING TO ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BY MON EVENING...AND INCREASE FURTHER BEYOND THE DISCUSSION 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N76W TO 08N91W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 09N111W TO 10N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 131W-139W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING N OF 19N SUGGESTING RATHER STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. SCATTERED THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 24N W OF 124W ARE MOVING RAPIDLY ENE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST W OF 140W. S OF 19N...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...EASTWARD TO ACROSS MEXICO FROM 15N- 22N. SOME OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS COMBINING WITH DEBRIS LEFTOVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAVE BEEN STALLING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE PASTE FEW DAYS. THE MOST CURRENT OF THESE FRONTS IS ANALYZED AS DISSIPATING ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N128W TO 26N135W TO SW OF THE AREA AT 21N140W. NW SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ARE W OF A LINE FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE AREA WILL PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT...AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS THERE TO THE HIGHER RANGE OF 11-19 FT LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON. THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO HAS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 121W/122W FROM 10N-14N MOVING W AT 16 KT. THIS FEATURE REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 13N-15N. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED TO W OF THE AREA TO NEAR 142W. OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ATTRIBUTED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 KT NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT AS NE NOCTURNAL PULSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT NE SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH MIXED NE AND NW SWELLS DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AS WELL AS WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS. $$ AGUIRRE