000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    
                             
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE 
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE EDGE OF AN 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS 
CAPTURED SEVERAL WIND BARBS OF 30-35 KT NLY WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE A SHIP CALL SIGN A8EH5 LOCATED NEAR 
13.5N95W REPORTED SEAS TO 10 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY 
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY SUNRISE TODAY. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING...DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE 
THU AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW GALE CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON. WAVE 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 20-23 FT WITH NE SWELL 
GREATER THAN 8 FT PROPAGATING WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM ITS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SOURCE REGION.
           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N95W TO 09N110W. ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 09N110W TO 11N116W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N121W TO 
08N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
NOTED N OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 84.5W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN 
PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 87W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 116W 
AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 
20-25 KT NW-N WINDS FROM 23N-29N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH 
THESE WINDS EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH TO 21N BETWEEN 108W AND 
110W. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THESE WINDS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS DUE TO A 
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND RIDGING NOSING 
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
20 KT OR LESS BY LATE THU MORNING. SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TODAY. AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSISTS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... 
PARTICULARLY FROM 24N TO 28N E OF 122W WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT 
ACCORDING TO AN ALTIMETER PASS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS BY THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS 
WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT. 

A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
34N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE 
WATERS W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF 
THESE WINDS.

FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FAR NW CORNER AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE 
FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS 
MORNING. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL TO 12 FT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 20N138W BY EARLY THU MORNING.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
15N116W TO 10N119W. NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TO 
9 FT ARE NOTED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 125W. THE TROUGH 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED MARINE 
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MIXED SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 115W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE ONLY REMAINING 
AREA OF SEAS 8-9 FT BECOMING CONFINED TO THE W CENTRAL WATERS N 
OF THE ITCZ BY THU MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN 
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH 
THU EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT. SEAS GREATER THAT 8 
FT GENERATING BY THE GAP WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE GULFS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE BY LATE THU 
COVERING ROUGHLY THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W AND 108W.

$$
GR