000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE NOV 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-35 KT NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BETWEEN 24N AND 27N AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS IN THE GULF TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT BY TONIGHT...BUT A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT...FORECAST TO BE THE FIRST STORM FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON 2014-2015. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH CHIVELA PASS LATE TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO STORM FORCE (50 KT) BY WED AT 1200 UTC. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 20-23 FT WITH THESE STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS MINIMAL STORM GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY THU AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD END LATE SAT MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N90W TO 09N100W TO 11N113W. ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 10N116W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED N OF 05N E OF 79W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N E OF 78W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 23N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 24N W OF 125W. THE HIGH PRES WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING...PARTICULARLY FROM 25N TO 28N TO ABOUT 118W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND MAINLY WESTWARD AFFECTING THE WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 23N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TODAY. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TODAY REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 135W. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N W OF 125W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N113W TO 09N116W. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 120W. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING ROUGHLY 122W TONIGHT AND 125W WED NIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ESPECIALLY FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. $$ GR