000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BEGINNING AT 0600 UTC TUE AND ENDING AFTER SUNRISE TUE MORNING. 
THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1702 UTC SHOWED 30 KT N-NW WINDS IN THE 
WESTERN GULF NEAR 28N...5 KT STRONGER THAN THE AVAILABLE 
FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR 1800 UTC. THE 1200 UTC GFS RUN PREDICTS 
GALE CONDITIONS IN THE S CENTRAL GULF BY 0600 UTC. THIS SEEMS TO 
BE ON TRACK BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE 
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS IN THE GULF TO REMAIN AT GALE 
FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 
30 KT BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN A FRESH N-NW BREEZE 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WED EVENING.  

IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE 
TO SUGGEST A MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY STALL THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUE 
AND WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
THE U.S. PLAINS STATES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT 
THROUGH CHIVELA PASS LATE TUE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE 
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED MORNING AND 
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 1200 UTC. SEAS WILL QUICKLY 
RAMP UP TO 12 TO 18 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THIS 
PERIOD. STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED EVENING. 
           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED 10N85W TO 11N90W TO 09N101W TO 
12N113W TO TROUGH FROM 14N112W TO 10N116W. ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 11N117W TO 10N120W TO 10N135W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ALSO 
NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W AND FROM 
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 37N128W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 27N120W TO NEAR 15N105W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STILL STRONG 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER 
THE AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W. THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE HAS ALSO ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE 
W SIDE OF A TROUGH FROM 14N112W TO 10N116W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
WILL MIGRATE NE THROUGH TUE AND PINCH OFF A WEAKER HIGH NEAR 
32N124W BY WED EVENING...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISHING THE TRADE WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 
HIGH PRES HAS ALREADY OOZED INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT 
BASIN...BUILDING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND EVENTUALLY OVER PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A 
STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE 
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A 
NEW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. SE WINDS WILL 
PICK UP TO A STRONG BREEZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE 
INTO NW WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING AND LIE FROM 30N138W TO 
27N140W BY WED EVENING. 
 
$$
SCHAUER