000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222117
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 10N87W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 09N101W 1010 MB TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 08N110W TO 11N119W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N123W 
TO 07N127W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 11N W OF 131W 
AND S OF THE AXIS TO 06N W OF 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 31N137W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W TO SOCORRO ISLAND. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-21N W OF 
130W AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A 
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING 
THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT 
MOVES TO 16N124W TO 10N126W BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MIDDAY MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW 
SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 25N W OF 135W AT THE MOMENT 
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS THROUGH MON AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN AND 
MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A 
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES UNDER THE 
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE 
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 
WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH LA PAZ MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W. THIS UPPER 
TROUGH WILL PULL E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH 
PUSHES W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
SHOULD STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET 
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE 
VERTICAL MOTION. PRESENTLY...THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY JET IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE 
OF THE ITCZ OVER WATERS W OF 129W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED 
IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE 
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES BUILDING IS EXPECTED 
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY 
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THIS 
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NE TO N 
CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
 
$$
SCHAUER