000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N88W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 09N100W TO 10N114W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N114W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO 08N125W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W AND FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SW FROM NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N112W TO 22N126W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N144W. A RIDGE IS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 125W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 30N138W TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-23N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES LIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SOME WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY OVER THE WATERS N OF 15N-16N. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW SWELL. BY LATE SUN...A RESIDUAL TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS FROM 10N- 22N W OF 130W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W TO 08N118W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS. THE NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N TO 110W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE WINDS IN THE 20- 25 KT RANGE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 16N TO 123W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED TO THE TRADES. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THIS SET OF SWELLS WILL THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT COVERING THE AREA N OF ABOUT 08N W OF ABOUT 118W. THE HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. GAP WINDS...EXPECT GAP WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON EARLY SUN. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING NLY WINDS OF 50 KT BY WED MORNING. THE GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 PERCENT WITH THE 22/0000 UTC RUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 23-25 FT WITH THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT. $$ GR