000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT 
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-16 FT 
RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 
TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO     
LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N111W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N116W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 
95W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W... 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...   
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM SW OF 
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W TO 
20N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO  
SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE 
CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. THE 
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NW 
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF 140W WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
E-SE WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 139W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER W OF 140W.
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF 
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO 
BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL 
COVER THE WATERS 09N TO 24N W OF 129W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY 24 HOURS 
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 
24N129W TO 24N131W BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE 
MORNING.
 
BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N111W MOVING W 
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE   
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF 
SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF 
THIS LOW. 

$$
LEWITSKY