000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 
11-16 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS 
BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 8 FT 
EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N92W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N110W TO 10N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 10N125W TO 07N133W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
130W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION... 

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
NEAR 30N120.5W TO 24N124W. THE NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT 
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS 
GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 10N134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 138W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL 
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL EXPAND THE 
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N 
TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT 
OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. 
 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

$$
AL