000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT 
GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 
RANGE OF 11-17 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU 
MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU 
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST BELOW 
8 FT EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N110W TO 07N129W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTEND TO  BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 
138W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
NEAR 30N121W TO 23.5N127W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N140W. THE NW 
SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE 
SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 12N135W. THE 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW 
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS 
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL 
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE 
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS 
WILL ONCE AGAIN PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. BY 
THU AFTERNOON. 
 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN 
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW BY THU EVENING. 

$$
AL