000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED NOV 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 11-17 FT IN THE GULF. AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY 24 HOURS...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY ON FRI. BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N109W WITH PRES OF 1009 MB IS MOVING W AROUND 10-15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS ATTRIBUTED TO AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE W OF THE LOW ARE IMPEDING THE CONVECTION FROM ORGANIZING INTO DISTINGUISHABLE BANDING FEATURES FOR THE TIME BEING. FRESH WINDS ARE FORECAST ON THE NW AND NE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW BY 24-48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE TO ITS N. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH WITH ALREADY PRESENT MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THESE QUADRANTS WITHIN THE 24-48 HR FORECAST PERIODS OR PERHAPS SOONER. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N89W TO 08N100W TO NW TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N108W TO 09N114W TO 08N128W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N128W TO 07N136W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 86W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W- 117W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 133W-137W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-124.5W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG A POSITION FROM JUST W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA S TO 24N117W AND SE TO 10N114W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER STABLE N OF ABOUT 20N WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND SPECIAL FEATURES LOWS REMAINS TO THE S OF 20N AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NW PORTION...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N134W TO 23N132W THEN IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT INDICATED THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MAINLY MODERATE. SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN NW TO N SWELL...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 10-12 FT ALSO DUE TO PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL N OF 25N BETWEEN FRONT AND 137W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 132W BY EARLY THU...AND INTO FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHNG BY OR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE AGAIN TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS PROPAGATING TO THE SW THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE