000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG GALE FORCE 
WINDS NEAR 45 KT AND SEAS TO 19 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY 24 
HOURS...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU 
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO LESS THAN 
8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 11N108W AT 1010 MB IS MOVING    
W AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NE...120 NM IN THE  
SE...240 NM IN THE SW...AND 180 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS OF THE 
LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES BYPASSED THE LOW AND 
SURROUNDING VICINITY WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS CURRENTLY SHOWED 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. FRESH WINDS ARE FORECAST ON THE NW AND N 
SIDES OF THE LOW BY 24-48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO A RIDGE 
WHICH WILL SUPPORT BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THIS LOW HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE      
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR   
11N108W TO 09N118W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N118W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N136W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 
111W AND 117W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 
121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE NW PORTION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
30N125W TO 23N134W THEN IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 20N140W. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT WINDS BEHIND THE  
FRONT ARE MAINLY MODERATE NOW WHILE NW SWELL OF 8-14 FT IS W OF 
A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 22N130W TO 15N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE 
SE WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND A TIGHTER 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW 
PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 19N W OF 132W BY LATE THU 
NIGHT.

WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 07N136W AND IS 
MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM 
IN THE SW QUADRANT. A 0618 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE 
NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY 8-9 FT. THIS 
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF 140W BY 24 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE 
NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING BY THE 
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PULSING AGAIN TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS 
PROPAGATING TO THE SW THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.
 
$$
LEWITSKY