000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG GALE FORCE 
WINDS NEAR 45 KT AND SEAS TO 16 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE AND WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE EARLY THU. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE ON THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO NEAR 11 FT...AND 
TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BY THU EVENING.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N107W TO 09N115W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N135W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 121W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE NW PORTION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT 
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS...BUT SEAS TO 14 FT 
IN NW SWELL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY WED 
EVENING WHILE THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE WHILE 
SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THU 
AFTERNOON...SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT N OF 20N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
AND LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WILL HELP FOR FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 135W BY WED AFTERNOON. THE 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND THU AS HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD...AND WILL COVER AN AREA BETWEEN 10N AND 20N 
AND W OF 130W. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG EARLY WED 
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WED AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE WED 
NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.   

PREVIOUS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE 
HELPED TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 
10N107W. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
$$
AL