000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG GALE FORCE 
WINDS NEAR 45 KT AND SEAS TO 16 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VEER...THE COLD DENSE AIR 
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE AND WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE EARLY THU. WINDS WILL 
FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ON THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 
SUBSIDING TO NEAR 11 FT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 08N89W TO 09N100W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N105W TO 08N119W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE NW PORTION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD 
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS...BUT SEAS TO 16 FT 
IN NW SWELL CONTINUE. THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE 
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THU 
AFTERNOON...SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 
10 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN 
WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND W OF 
130W. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 
FT WILL DEVELOP IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY WED MORNING AND 
PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING.   

PREVIOUS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE 
HELPED TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 
10N105W. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
$$
AL