000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR IS STARTING TO RAPIDLY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED AND ARE ALREADY GALE FORCE AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE OF 45 KT AROUND SUNRISE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO UP TO 20 FT BY 24 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE...OR 50 KT...THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT CLEARLY INDICATE SUCH. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N96W TO 10N105W. ITCZ FROM 10N105W TO 10N114W TO 08N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N132W 1010 MB TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 119W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXITS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 102W- 110W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N115W TO 18N116W TO NEAR 09N116W. AMPLE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EVIDENT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. OVER THE NW PORTION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N128W TO 21N140W...AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SE AND SW SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-16 FT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8-12 FT BY EARLY ON WED...AND TO 9 FT WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 32N129W TO 30N118W TO 15N127W TO 08N134W TO 08N140W TO 23N140W TO 32N129W BY 48 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W-NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS BY LATE WED NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL N OF 26N AS CAPTURED BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. SEAS ARE STILL UP TO 8 FT...HOWEVER AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT WILL DEVELOP IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY WED EVENING OR POSSIBLY SOONER AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE SW OF COSTA RICA. PREVIOUS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO DEVELOP A PERTURBATION IN THE FORM OF A LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 10N104W WITH PRES OF 1009 MB MOVING W AT 12 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO...SOME DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. $$ AGUIRRE