000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180936 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE NOV 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR IS STARTING TO RAPIDLY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED AND ARE ALREADY GALE FORCE AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE OF 45 KT AROUND SUNRISE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO UP TO 20 FT BY 24 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE...OR 50 KT...THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT CLEARLY INDICATE SUCH. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N100W TO 09N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N112W TO 08N140W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 108W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... FAR NW WATERS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 21N140W WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD SE SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER FOLLOWS THE FRONT...UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W. THIS SET OF SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 30N118W TO 15N127W TO 08N134W TO 08N140W TO 23N140W TO 30N131W BY 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W-NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS BY LATE WED NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL N OF 26N AS CAPTURED BY RECENT ASCAT...ASCAT-B AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE STILL UP TO 8 FT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT WILL DEVELOP IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY LATE WED NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE SW OF COSTA RICA. PREVIOUS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO DEVELOP A PERTURBATION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 109W. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEAS TO 8 FT SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW PRES TO FORM ALONG IT WITH FRESH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. $$ LEWITSKY