000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING RAPIDLY  
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE AIR IS 
STARTING TO RAPIDLY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED AND ARE 
REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER 
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND REACH STRONG GALE 
FORCE OF 45 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 
16 FT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH 
MINIMAL STORM FORCE...OR 50 KT...BY AROUND SUNRISE TUE MORNING. 
THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU 
BEFORE WINDS FALL BELOW 30 KT FRI MORNING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 11N95W TO 
08N102W TO 08N108W...WHERE LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO 
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 10N115W TO 08N121W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.   

...DISCUSSION...

FAR NW WATERS...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW 
WATERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...PEAKING NEAR 25 KT. SEAS HAVE 
PEAKED NEAR 16 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY...AND THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE BY WED EVENING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY TUE. NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS 
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING. BY WED AFTERNOON...SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER 
THE AREA W OF A LINE 30N120W TO 20N125W TO 07N140W WITH SEAS TO 
10 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS 
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND BRING A RETURN OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 10N TO 18N W 
OF 132W BY WED EVENING.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL N OF 26N WITH 
SEAS REACHING 8 FT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BY TUE NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

THE RECENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE 
HELPED TO DEVELOP A PERTURBATION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
98W AND 106W. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEAS TO 8 FT SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE 
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 
 
$$
AL