000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172102
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING RAPIDLY  
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE W BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD DENSE AIR WILL RAPIDLY FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL 
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND REACH STRONG 
GALE FORCE OF 45 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
NEAR 16 FT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO BRIEFLY 
REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE...OR 50 KT...BY AROUND SUNRISE TUE 
MORNING. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THU BEFORE WINDS FALL BELOW 30 KT FRI MORNING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N96W TO 07N104W TO 
08N111W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
EXTENDS TO BEYOND 09.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N 
AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.  

...DISCUSSION...

FAR NW WATERS...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW 
WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS HAVE PEAKED NEAR 
15 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WHILE 
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY TUE. NW SWELL 
GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE OVER THE 
AREA WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. BY WED AFTERNOON...SEAS 8 FT OR 
GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE 30N123W TO 14N140W WITH 
SEAS TO 11 FT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION 
HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH TO BRING THE GALE FORCE WINDS DOWN OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE N OF 27.5N 
WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND BY TUE NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

THE RECENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE 
HELPED TO DEVELOP A PERTURBATION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
97W AND 107W. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS 
REACHING 25 KT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 107W 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PERTURBATION. 
 
$$
AL