000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON NOV 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FAR NW WATERS...A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N142W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THROUGH 30N136W TO 20N147W. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING NORTH OF 27.5N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE...TO 20-30 KT...WHERE SEAS ARE 10 TO 15 FT. GALES OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD. A MUCH WEAKENED FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 30N122W TO 21N140W BY 48 HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N140W LATER TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED EDGE OF NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SE...REACHING A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 23N130W TO 16N140W BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND WILL REACH THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAY BY EVENING. COLD DENSE AIR WILL RAPIDLY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING AND BLAST GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY AROUND 00 UTC THIS EVENING...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG GALES OF 45 KT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE...OR 50 KT...BY AROUND SUNRISE TUE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 18 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU BEFORE WINDS FALL BELOW 30 KT FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N71W TO 10N84W TO 09N89W TO 11N98W TO 07N103W TO 08.5N110W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 09.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS N OF 03.5N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N124W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO NEAR 14N122W. THE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHINESS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO PERSISTING THIS MORNING...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NORTHERLY GALES BLOWING THROUGH NORTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS BLOWING THE THROUGH THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF AND AROUND THE TIP OF THE PENINSULA AT CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS THIS MORNING WERE 7-10 FT N OF THE TIBURON BASIN...AND 6-9 FT TO THE SOUTH. THESE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ALL BUT FAR S PORTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WED THROUGH THU. THE RECENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO DEVELOP A PERTURBATION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...WHERE A SHARP TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 99W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NO CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. FRESH S-SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE ARE MAINTAINING SEAS 7 TO 8 FT AND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 24-36 HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING TUE AFTERNOON. $$ STRIPLING