000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHINESS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO A VERY 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS AND A GALE WARNING IS IN 
EFFECT FROM 27N TO 30.5N ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS SHOULD BE 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRESH TO 
STRONG NW-N WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE W OF 110W AND WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE NEXT 30-36 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL 
ALSO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THEN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT 
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. WHEN THE FRONT 
REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT...COLD DENSE AIR WILL 
RAPIDLY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
THIS EVENING AND FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE LATE 
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KT EARLY TUE MORNING 
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL STORM 
FORCE...OR 50 KT...EARLY TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 
TO 18 FT.

FAR NW WATERS...A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED 
JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N142W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THROUGH 30N139W TO 21N147W. WINDS 
HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE IN THE NW CORNER AS SAMPLED BY 
RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS WEAKENS WHILE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. 
THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 30N125W TO 23N130W BY 48 HOURS... 
DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 16 FT NEAR 
30N140W LATER TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED EDGE OF NW SWELL OF 8 FT 
OR GREATER WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SE...REACHING A LINE FROM 
30N125W TO 23N130W TO 16N140W BY 48 HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N96W TO 
08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N123W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION     
IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 109W... 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 109W... 
AND FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N124W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W AND SW TO NEAR 
20N137W. THE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY 
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. 

THE RECENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE 
HELPED TO DEVELOP A PERTURBATION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
95W AND 103W HOWEVER RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWED NO CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE. FRESH S-SW 
WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE ARE MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT 
AND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 24-36 HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING 
TUE AFTERNOON.
 
$$
LEWITSKY