000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER 
THE AREA. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE 
AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 27.5N. THE GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 06 UTC MON. WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL 
ALSO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS 24N BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 
TUE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING 
TO BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT 
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. WHEN THE FRONT REACHES 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT...COLD DENSE AIR WILL RAPIDLY 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS 
WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE MON EVENING AND 
FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE MON NIGHT. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KT EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH SOME 
POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE...OR 50 
KT...EARLY TUE MORNING...WHERE SEAS COULD BUILD TO 18 FT.

FAR NW WATERS...A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED 
JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY 06 UTC 
MON...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12-15 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT 
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW REMAINS N OF 30N THROUGH MON NIGHT 
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AS THE ASSOCIATED 
NW SWELL PROPAGATES TO THE SE...REACHING FROM NW OF A LINE 
30N125W TO 24N130W TO 20N140W BY TUE EVENING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N97W TO 08N103W...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 09N110W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W 
AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1024 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N125W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N110W AND SW TO NEAR 21N140W. THE 
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES 
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. 

THE RECENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE 
HELPED TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT MAY 
HELP TO INDUCE INCREASED WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF 
THIS FEATURE BY THU MORNING.
 
$$
AL