000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162104
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP OVER 
THE AREA. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED WINDS TO 
GALE FORCE AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29.5N. THE GALE 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 06 UTC MON. WINDS OF 20-
25 KT WILL ALSO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS 24N BY MONDAY 
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE GULF 
WATERS THROUGH TUE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT 
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. WHEN THE FRONT REACHES 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT...COLD DENSE AIR WILL RAPIDLY 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS 
WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE TO 25 KT MON EVENING AND FURTHER INCREASE 
TO GALE FORCE LATE MON NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 
KT EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO 
BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE...OR 50 KT...EARLY TUE MORNING...WHERE 
SEAS COULD BUILD TO 18 FT.

FAR NW WATERS...A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED 
JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY 06 UTC 
MON...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12-15 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT 
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW REMAINS N OF 30N THROUGH MON NIGHT 
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AS THE ASSOCIATED 
NW SWELL PROPAGATES TO THE SE...REACHING FROM NW OF A LINE 
30N126W TO 21N140W BY TUE AFTERNOON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 09N90W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
08N103W TO 09N111W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
84W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
92W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N125W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N119W AND SW TO NEAR 22N140W. THE 
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES 
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. SMALL POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MIXED SE 
AND NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS 
W OF 110W. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
TONIGHT.
 
$$
AL