000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161613 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN NOV 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SINKING S AND SE ACROSS W TEXAS AND THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. BY AROUND MIDDAY...A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD TOWARD FAR NW MEXICO...WHILE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING S TO THE S TIP OF THE PENINSULA. A LOCAL STUDY OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHERLY WIND EVENTS INDICATES THAT THE PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GREATLY EXCEED THE MAXIMUM THRESHOLD SHOWN TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE BASIN...AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...PERSISTING UNTIL 06 UTC MON. WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND REACH NEAR 24N AND ESPIRITU SANTO BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO N OF 28N BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW PREVAILED. HOWEVER WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS UPCOMING EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BLAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA MON. WINDS WILL VERY RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 30-40 KT MON EVENING AND INCREASE TO 45 KT OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING 13- 15 FT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE OR 50 KT EARLY TUE MORNING...WHERE SEAS COULD BUILD TO 18 FT. FAR NW PORTIONS...A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAGGING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT...OR BY 06 UTC MON... DIMINISHING S OF 30N BY 18 UTC MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12- 15 FT NEAR 30N140W DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW REMAINS N OF 30N THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AS THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL PROPAGATES TO THE SE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 09N88W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07N115W TO 11N137W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 88W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N AND 270 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 118W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N107W AND ANOTHER SW TO NEAR 22N140W. THE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEVERAL SPORADIC POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MIXED SE AND NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W ALTHOUGH THESE SEAS WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 00 UTC MON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO OF 14N E OF 110W. FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT HAVE GENERATED A NEW AREA OF FRESH 7-8 FT SEAS E OF 96W. MEANWHILE RESIDUAL 6-8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE W-SW ROUGHLY COVERING THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. THESE SEAS WILL ALL GRADUALLY DECAY TO BARELY 6-7 FT BY 48 HOURS. THE RECENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO PERTURB THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE PAST 36 HOURS...AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE 95W ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT MAY INDUCED INCREASED WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS FEATURE BY THU MORNING. $$ STRIPLING