000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN NOV 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. LATER THIS MORNING RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD TOWARD FAR NW MEXICO WHILE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALSO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A LOCAL RESEARCH TOOL/STUDY INDICATES A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BASED ON THE FORECAST PRES PATTERN WHILE THE LATEST SREF 34 KT OR GREATER PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 45 PERCENT. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS 35 KT WINDS WHILE ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP SHOW WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 KT. THUS A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE GULF N OF 29.5N COMMENCING AT 18 UTC AND PERSISTING UNTIL 06 UTC MON. WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO 26N BY THIS TIME TOMORROW BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO N OF 29N BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WHICH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS UPCOMING EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BLAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA MON. WINDS WILL VERY RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY 48 HOURS ONCE THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE CHIVELA PASS WITH IMPRESSIVE RIDGING SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO. NW CORNER...A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAGGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY 06 UTC MON...DIMINISHING S OF 30N BY 18 UTC MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 14-15 FT NEAR 30N140W DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW REMAINS N OF 30N THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AS THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATES TO THE SE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N120W TO 12N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 13N104W TO 12N109W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ...DISCUSSION... 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W AND ANOTHER SW TO NEAR 22N140W. THE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEVERAL SPORADIC POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MIXED SE AND NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W ALTHOUGH THESE SEAS WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 00 UTC MON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO E OF 110W. FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE GENERATING A NEW AREA OF FRESH 8 FT SEAS E OF 89W. MEANWHILE RESIDUAL 8-9 FT SEAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE W-SW ROUGHLY COVERING THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 107W. THESE SEAS WILL ALL GRADUALLY DECAY TO BARELY 7-8 FT BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY