000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160350 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 16 2014

CORRECTED IN ORDER TO DELETE THE EARLIER PARAGRAPH ABOUT THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS 
TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY 
NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT SIX HOURS 
LATER. GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING 
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE 
SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 15 FEET IN NW 
SWELL DURING THIS TIME.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 008N78W TO 08N83W TO 06N93W TO 
06N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 09N122W TO 08N132W TO 
11N136W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 129W 
AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 98W...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 
110W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 133W AND 135W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND FROM 07N TO 
08N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IS DOWNSTREAM FROM 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 
106W...WITH WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 18 HOURS OR SO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N106W IN 
NORTHERN MEXICO...TO 21N108W TO 15N116W TO 10N118W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 
124W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 121W.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 33N126W. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 17N 
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND LOWER 
PRESSURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 110W WESTWARD. THE SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 11.5N137.5W AT 15/1800 UTC HAS 
WEAKENED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 
15/1932 UTC PASS SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE WEST 
OF 140W. 20 KNOT WINDS ARE ALSO JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

MIXED LONG PERIOD SE AND NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT   
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 20N115W 
TO 00N125W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 30N125W TO 15N140W BASED ON THE 
LATEST ALTIMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SEAS WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 36-48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP 
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST 
OFFSHORE/TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA  
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND TO THE SOUTH FROM THE 
U.S.A. GREAT BASIN TO THE INTERIOR OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND 
ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST-
TO-NORTH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY 
EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO 26N MONDAY MORNING AROUND 
SUNRISE. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 TO 9 FEET DURING THE 
ENTIRE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
 
$$
MT