000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT NOV 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO THE NORTH OF 27N AND TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 132W...AS WELL AS NW OF THE FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 15 FEET IN NW SWELL DURING THIS TIME. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 07N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 09N120W TO 08N132W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N137.5W TO 08N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE RANGING FROM 20 KNOTS TO 30 KNOTS...LESS THAN GALE-FORCE. THE SEA HEIGHTS STILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE 8 FOOT SEAS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. THE WHOLE AREA WILL HAVE WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET OR LOWER BY 18 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N110W IN NORTHERN MEXICO...TO 22N110W TO 10N118W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 33N125W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND LOWER PRESSURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 110W WESTWARD...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11.5N137.5W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 20-25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE WEST OF 140W IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND IT WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY 36 HOURS. MIXED LONG PERIOD SE AND NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 20N115W TO 00N125W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 30N125W TO 15N140W BASED ON THE LATEST ALTIMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 36-48 HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SW OF COSTA RICA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS EVENT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUN NIGHT WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE/TO THE W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE S FROM THE U.S. GREAT BASIN TO ACROSS THE INTERIOR BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO 26N SUN NIGHT WHILE BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. $$ MT